Q3 2026 earnings: S&P 500 on track for 29% growth

Third-quarter earnings season is under way, and the early numbers point to another quarter of very strong profit growth for the S&P 500. According to FactSet's update of October 16, 2026, with 9% of index companies reported, the blended earnings growth rate for Q3 is 29.0% year over year.

What happened

FactSet's "blended" rate combines actual results from companies that have reported with estimates for those that haven't. As of October 16:

Metric	Q3 2026 so far	5-year average	10-year average
Companies beating EPS estimates	84%	78%	77%
Aggregate EPS surprise	+2.6%	+7.5%	+8.0%
Companies beating revenue estimates	67%	70%	68%
Aggregate revenue surprise	+1.1%	+1.8%	+1.6%

• Earnings growth: 29.0% blended, slightly down from 29.4% a week earlier and 29.2% at the end of the quarter on September 30. If it holds, it would be the third straight quarter above 25% and the eighth straight quarter of double-digit growth.
• Revenue growth: 12.6% blended, up from 12.2% on September 30 — on track for a third straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth.
• Sectors: ten of eleven sectors are reporting or expected to report higher earnings than a year ago, led by Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services and Materials. Health Care is the only sector with a year-over-year earnings decline, and downward revisions to its estimates were the main drag on the index's growth rate in the past week.
• Valuation: the forward 12-month P/E ratio is 19.0, below the 5-year average of 19.8 and close to the 10-year average of 19.1.

Why it matters for your portfolio

A large share of most US investors' portfolios tracks the S&P 500, directly or through index funds. Over the long run, index returns follow earnings, so the pace of profit growth is one of the main fundamentals behind what you own.

Two details are worth noting. First, more companies than usual are beating estimates, but by a smaller margin than usual — a 2.6% aggregate surprise versus a 5-year average of 7.5%. Second, growth is concentrated: strong numbers from Energy and Technology are doing much of the work, while Health Care is shrinking. If your portfolio is tilted toward particular sectors, the index-level number may not describe your holdings.

Early-season figures also move. Only about one company in eleven has reported, and the blended rate can change materially as the largest companies publish results.

What to watch next

• This week: FactSet expects 79 S&P 500 companies, including five Dow 30 components, to report.
• Guidance for Q4: analysts currently expect Q4 2026 earnings growth of 28.6% and full-year 2026 growth of 32.8%. Revisions to those numbers during the season are an early read on corporate confidence.
• The Fed: the FOMC meets October 27–28. In September it raised the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, citing elevated inflation.

If you hold individual stocks, earnings dates are when the biggest single-day price moves usually happen. GetHossa tracks your holdings across brokerages and compares your return with the S&P 500, so you can see how this season plays out in your own portfolio rather than just the index. For each company you own, the stock research page shows past EPS surprises and how the share price reacted to earnings reports.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.