CPI at 3.7% in September; 2027 COLA set at 3.6%

Two closely linked numbers came out on October 14, 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September, and the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for benefits in 2027.

What happened

Consumer prices (CPI-U), September 2026:

	Monthly change (seasonally adjusted)	12-month change
All items	+0.6%	+3.7%
Core (excluding food and energy)	+0.3%	+2.6%
Energy	+5.2%	+20.4%
Gasoline	+9.1%	+34.2%
Shelter	+0.4%	+3.2%

The gap between headline inflation (3.7%) and core inflation (2.6%) shows how much of the rise is coming from energy, and gasoline in particular.

Social Security COLA for 2027: benefits will rise 3.6%, starting with benefits paid for January 2027. That compares with 2.8% for 2026, 2.5% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2024, making it the largest adjustment since the 8.7% increase for 2023. Coverage of the SSA announcement put the increase in the average retirement benefit at about $75 a month. The COLA is tied to a related inflation measure, the CPI-W, averaged over July, August and September.

Why it matters for investors

• Real returns. What you keep is your return minus inflation. A portfolio up 6% over a year in which prices rose 3.7% gained far less in purchasing power than the headline number suggests. To see what a lower real return does to a long-term plan, try different rates in our compound interest calculator.
• The Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, saying inflation "remains elevated." Its next meeting is October 27–28. Rate expectations move bond yields, which in turn affect the value of bond funds and the cash yields on savings and money market accounts.
• Retirement income planning. If you are drawing or about to draw Social Security, the 3.6% increase raises the inflation-protected part of your income. If you plan withdrawals from a portfolio alongside it, check whether those withdrawals are keeping pace with prices too.
• Taxes next year. Many federal tax thresholds — income tax brackets, the standard deduction and the 0%/15%/20% brackets for long-term capital gains and qualified dividends — are adjusted for inflation each year. As of October 20, the IRS had not yet published its 2027 adjustments.

What to watch next

• October 27–28: FOMC meeting and rate decision.
• November 10: October CPI release from the BLS.
• IRS 2027 inflation adjustments: the IRS typically publishes them in the autumn. Until then, any 2027 bracket figures you see are projections, not official numbers.

To see how your own portfolio is doing against inflation and the market, GetHossa tracks your holdings across brokerages and compares your return with the S&P 500.

This article is for information only and is not investment, tax or retirement advice.